There is an analogy, often used in business books on the management of change, about a frog in a pan of water. It was said if a frog jumped into a pan of hot water it would immediately jump out. However, if a frog was in a pan of cold water which was slowly heated the frog would fail to react to the change and eventually die.
The lesson for businesses was they must constantly respond to changes in the external environment, even if, initially they appeared minor. Not sure what science this was based on and whether any frogs were hurt in the discovery of this weakness.
The Uxbridge and Ruislip by-election has been cast as a referendum on the Mayor of London’s proposal to extend the Ultra Low Emission Zone into the constituency. The surprise win by the Conservative candidate triggered a significant rethink by both the Conservatives and Labour on their prioritisation of climate change as an issue. The Tories seeing it as a potential wedge issue for the coming general election. Labour concerned it might gain traction with hard pressed voters tried to run with the hare and the hounds.
It is worth remembering the majority secured by the Conservatives in this “referendum” was less than two percent of the 46% of voters who turned out. Of course they have a track record for taking simple majorities as decisive for matters with far reaching and potentially damaging consequences, eg. Brexit.
Positioning himself as the friend of the motorist Rishi Sunak doubled down on the wedge issue by issuing 100 new licences for exploration of the North sea for new gas and oil reserves on 31 July. Sir Kier Starmer confirmed that if he becomes Prime Minister he will not revoke those licences.
It makes one wonder when political elites will wake and smell the smoke. On the very day of the by-election the international news was about a dangerous heatwave in Europe, and unprecedented, out of control, forest fires raging across Canada.
A key role of political leaders is they should lead. They should be assessing the scale and nature of future threats and preparing the public for them. Explaining what needs to be done now to prevent catastrophe tomorrow. And with climate change the pan is already very hot. It is time to jump. To move to a war footing to address the problem that looms ever larger.
The most sensible response to the implications of the Uxbridge by-election came from the former Tory Environment Minister, John Selwyn Gummer, now Lord Debden, and until recently Chairman of the UK’s Independent Committee on Climate Change.
Lord Debden has spoken frequently of the need for politicians of all parties to face up to the hard decisions that have to be made to tackle climate change effectively. In relation to the issue of ultra low emission proposals he talked about balancing these with much more aggressive approaches to taxing private jet and helicopter fuel. This would raise revenue from those who are: a) generating the most C02 emissions and, b) most able to pay the tax thus inserting some sense of fairness currently notable by its absence.
Responding to change is vital for individuals, companies, nations and civilisations, (oh and frogs it would seem). The importance of responding should not be diluted by the extended time frame over which change happens. It is clear the problem of climate change has been building for more than a hundred years. The process and its implications were clearly understood in the 1980’s. Vested interests have sown doubt since then but now the climate crisis is not coming. It is here.
The pan is coming to the boil. The question is, are we going to jump?